Recession Predictions For 2024. It’s just the way the business cycle goes. The sahm rule forecasts recessions based on a 0.5% rise in a smoothed version of unemployment rate over the course of a year, as developed by economist.

For many americans, 2023 was a hard year financially, but will what’s coming be better or worse? The world’s most accurate economist told us his forecasts for the us economy in 2024, the biggest risks he’s watching, and a trade to take advantage of.